http://hdl.handle.net/11422/2374 Sat, 25 Jul 2026 23:25:24 GMT 2026-07-25T23:25:24Z http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29752 Title: Public debt maturity structure in Brazil: a Stock-Flow Consistency (SFC) analysis Author(s)/Inventor(s): Almeida, Nathália Filgueiras de Advisor: Brochier, Lídia Abstract: This dissertation investigates the impacts and dynamics of government debt maturity structure within Brazil's institutional framework. To accomplish that, a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model that reproduces in a stylized manner the Brazilian institutional framework regarding supply and demand for federal government bonds is built to explicit debt maturities dynamics, producing endogenous cyclical behavior. As far as we are aware, explicitly accounting for debt maturities is an original contribution to SFC literature. The model is used to assess the secondary effects of three key policy shocks: (i) monetary policy changes – a cut (or increase) in monetary policy rate; (ii) fiscal expansion or contraction through government expenditure; (iii) fiscal loosening or tightening through tax rate changes. We also analyze a shock on bondholders’ portfolio choice sensitivity parameter. Additionally, we compare debt-to-GDP dynamics under alternative scenarios for initial maturity structure. The results show that monetary policy shocks only affect the price of bills, without impacting real economic variables or debt; accelerating government spending lowers debt-to-GDP ratio, while tax rate cuts raise debt-to-GDP ratios, and altering bondholder’s sensitivity to bill’s return are neutral. Overall results indicate that explicitly accounting for debt maturities introduces significant volatility to the system, even considering a stable private sector demand for government bills and central bank as a last-resort buyer for excess government debt. This aspect renders the modelling appropriate for analyzing emerging market economies whose maturities structures play an important role in government borrowing needs. Publisher: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Type: Dissertação Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29752 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29750 Title: Adensamento produtivo no âmbito do Complexo Econômico Industrial da Saúde: uma análise insumo-produto do governo Lula 3 Author(s)/Inventor(s): Oliveira, Thalita Borges Advisor: Marcato, Marilia Bassetti Abstract: The growing external dependence on strategic inputs and the process of deindustrialization have weakened Brazil’s productive base, especially in the healthcare sector. This study investigates how strengthening domestic production within the Health Economic-Industrial Complex (HEIC) can contribute to revitalizing the Brazilian economy and reducing vulnerabilities in meeting the demands of the Unified Health System (SUS). The research aims to explore the potential economic impacts of the public policies of Lula’s third administration, specifically those aimed at increasing the productive density of the HEIC in terms of job creation and production across different sectors. The study is based on the hypothesis that implementing policies to stimulate the production of strategic inputs for the SUS could be part of a solution to Brazil’s industrial hollowing-out, given that expanding local healthcare production has the potential to drive broader economic growth. The study adopts an empirical approach based on the input-output matrix (IOM), analyzing two demand shock scenarios: a baseline scenario, which maintains the current level of imports, and an alternative scenario that incorporates both the nationalization targets of Mission 2 of the New Industry Brazil (NIB) and the investment variations projected in the National Strategy for HEIC Development and the PAC Saúde. The results highlight a significant increase in investments in the HEIC, rising by 470% between 2022 and 2024, with PAC Saúde accounting for 70% of this total. In the policy scenario, there was a substantial impact on production in sectors linked to the pharmaceutical supply chain, such as "manufacturing of organic and inorganic chemicals, resins, and elastomers," which saw a 1,370% increase, as well as a remarkable rise in employment in architecture, engineering, and R&D services, which grew 160 times more than in the baseline scenario. The findings demonstrate that increasing the productive density of the HEIC, driven by public policies, has the potential to revitalize key sectors of the Brazilian economy. The substantial rise in investments, particularly through PAC Saúde, and the notable impacts on production and employment in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and R&D underscore the importance of these policies in strengthening national productive capacity and reducing external dependence, especially in the context of public healthcare. Publisher: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Type: Dissertação Sun, 02 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29750 2025-02-02T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29678 Title: Can politicians make changes of cash transfer policies and lose votes because of it? evidence from brazil’s 2022 presidential elections Author(s)/Inventor(s): Menezes, Lucas Afflalo Brandao da Cunha e Advisor: Rocha, Romero Cavalcanti Barreto da Abstract: This work has the objective to evaluate how the implementations and changes in the Conditioned Cash Transfer programs of Bolsa Família, that is also known as Auxílio Brasil, had a trend on electoral outcomes. Using a combination of databases from the Brazilian government agencies of Cadastro Único, Portal da Transparência and Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), and dif-in-dif models, I find results that show that these implementations had a negative trend on Jair Bolsonaro’s electoral outcomes in the 2022 presidential elections compared to 2018. In order to better validate these results, some models included data on other factors that may have influenced decision on voting, such as credit and intervention from the federal highway police (prf). Even with such, the results stayed negative and with similar dimensions as the ones without them. These results are unprecedented in the context of Brazilian cash transfer programs and voting, which could generate new discussions regarding on how such programs could affect voting. Publisher: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Type: Tese Wed, 26 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29678 2025-02-26T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29610 Title: Liberalização financeira, hierarquia de moedas e espaço de política econômica em países de moedas periféricas Author(s)/Inventor(s): Ferreira, Mateus Coelho Advisor: Paula, Luiz Fernando de Abstract: The present PhD thesis aims to understand external vulnerability and economic policy space under the context of financial liberalization in countries with peripheral currencies. In the first chapter, the historical context and the theoretical aspects of financial liberalization are presented. In the second chapter, the theoretical reasons for the reduction of economic policy space are deepened in which they can be evidenced by financial subordination to capital flows and by the degree of the asymmetric insertion in the International Financial System. This degree would depend directly on the productive complexity of each country. Finally, in the third chapter, we use the stock and flow consistent (SFC) approach to represent a small economy open to capital flows inserted into a flexible exchange rate regime and monetary policy conducted by Taylor’s rule. The Currency Hierarchy appears in the financial asymmetry within the accounting structure. The stability of the model is obtained by utilizing wave movements that are related to exchange rate dynamics. Shock in external variables such as the international interest rate and government spending are submitted to understand the dynamics of this economy and its financial balance sheets. The results show that a floating exchange rate regime and Taylor’s rule cannot promote the necessary stability of a small open economy, especially when it has a low degree of adjustment of its flows and stocks. It is shown that this economy is also subject to the structuralist dominance of the balance of payments and has a tendency of appreciation of the exchange rate in the long term in line with the New Developmentalism approach. Therefore, such results suggest the implementation of alternative measures to broaden the economic policy space in countries with peripheral currencies. Publisher: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Type: Tese Fri, 21 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29610 2025-02-21T00:00:00Z