http://hdl.handle.net/11422/762 Produções parciais ou finais de atividades científicas. Thu, 23 Jul 2026 21:33:28 GMT 2026-07-23T21:33:28Z http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29454 Title: First interim report to the Climate Change Committee of the advisory group on the economics of climate risk and adaptation Author(s)/Inventor(s): Robinson, Elizabeth; Francis, Angela; Laybourn, Laurie; Lober, Theresa; Stuckey, Andy; Mullan, Michael; Fletcher, Amelia; Rising, James; Sharpe, Simon; Sukkar, Elizabeth; Trappmann, Vera; Young, Carlos Eduardo Frickmann; Roberts, Carys; Barzin, Samira; Barry, John Abstract: Systemic crises occur when the disruption of an individual or multiple parts of a complex, interconnected system results in one or more shocks that are amplified and spread, or cascade, across space, time, and systems, ultimately leading to a collapse or severe impairment of an entire system. The costs of systemic risk can therefore be extremely high, and there is considerable evidence that the benefit-cost ratio of investing in adaptation and resilience to reduce the likelihood of a systemic crisis is likely to be high. Yet despite this, in the UK (and likely elsewhere), there is a sense that efforts to deal with systemic risk are inadequate. We suggest that there are key features of systemic risk that make it tricky for governments to take timely and proportionate action. First, systemic crises are associated with extreme uncertainty (unknown probabilities), in terms of the likelihood that a systemic crisis will be triggered, when it will be triggered, how the crisis will pan out, and what the overall costs are. Second, the likelihood of a specific systemic crisis being triggered and amplified in the next year has tended to be very low, though the likelihood is increasing over time due to climate change. Linked to this is the potential misalignment “between short-term evaluation cycles and the long-term, sporadic nature of systemic risks.” As such, a sense of urgency to act on systemic risks may be missing. For example, it may be easier for a government to act on risks that are perceived to have a relatively high chance of occurring in the next 12 months, compared with acting on risks perceived low changes of happening, even if the “best guess” of the expected benefit-cost of a systemic crisis is high. Publisher: Climate Change Committee Type: Relatório Tue, 13 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29454 2024-08-13T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29324 Title: Orçamento climático subnacional: estado do Rio Grande do Sul Author(s)/Inventor(s): Santana, Francisco de Carvalho; Carvalho, Rodrigo Abreu; Morlin, Guilherme Spinato; Serra, Pedro Solano Pereira; Freitas, Camila Rizzini; Carvalho, Célia Maria Silva; Malhadas, Carin Caroline Deda; Young, Carlos Eduardo Frickmann Abstract: The year 2024 was challenging for the state of Rio Grande do Sul due to the floods caused by heavy rains in late April and early May, which affected 478 of the state’s 497 municipalities. The economic losses in Rio Grande do Sul had a significant impact on the productive sector and the labor market and, above all, on the public budget, with substantial emergency spending related to the event. In this context, the strategic role of the state public budget in building response, adaptation, and resilience capacities in the face of climate events is evident. Rio Grande do Sul’s settled climate-related expenditures in 2024 totaled R$ 5.5 billion, an amount equivalent to 0.78% of the state’s GDP. This figure represents 7.44% of the total settled budget for the fiscal year. It should be noted that this percentage was influenced by extraordinary expenditures associated with the floods and should not necessarily be interpreted as a structural pattern of state climate policy. In this regard, analyses covering a longer time frame are necessary for a more robust assessment. Given the trend toward increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, it is recommended to expand preventive climate adaptation expenditures in order to reduce the damage associated with these events and, consequently, the need for emergency response spending. Publisher: Centro Internacional Celso Furtado de Políticas para o Desenvolvimento Type: Relatório Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29324 2026-03-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29265 Title: Orçamento climático nacional Author(s)/Inventor(s): Resende, Amanda Martinho; Freitas, Camila Rizzini; Carvalho, Rodrigo Abreu; Morlin, Guilherme Spinato; Fevereiro, José Bruno Ramos Torres; Young, Carlos Eduardo Frickmann; Carvalho, Célia Maria Silva Abstract: This report aims to estimate federal public expenditure—both budgetary and tax-related—from the perspective of its impact on climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. For the analysis of the federal public budget, a core set of government expenditures was selected, considered a mirror that adequately reflects its priorities: primary expenditures and tax expenditures (GTs) of the Union for the period 2019–2024. The main data sources used are the Integrated Planning and Budgeting System (SIOP), developed and maintained by the Federal Budget Secretariat (SOF), and the Tax Expenditure Statement (DGT) of the Federal Revenue Service. Each budgetary action and tax expenditure was classified in two stages, considering the following climate-related budgetary markers: main (directly favourable), significant (indirectly favourable), neutral, unmarked, or unfavourable to mitigation and/or adaptation objectives. In order to standardise the classification, we systematised the expenditure, breaking it down into nine broad areas and thirty-five themes. Publisher: Centro Internacional Celso Furtado de Políticas para o Desenvolvimento Type: Relatório Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29265 2026-03-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29249 Title: Impactos econômicos de eventos extremos no Brasil e o custo das mudanças climáticas Author(s)/Inventor(s): Costa, Lucas de Almeida Nogueira da; Morlin, Guilherme Spinato; Fevereiro, José Bruno Ramos Torres; Young, Carlos Eduardo Frickmann Abstract: This study aims to (i) estimate the economic impacts (such as GDP, tax revenue from goods, material damage, financial losses and various measures of agricultural production) and the human impacts (injuries, illness, displacement, homelessness) of extreme weather events involving drought and heavy rainfall at municipal level, observed between 2000 and 2023. To this end, it employs econometric methods of causal inference and the database presented in the report Survey of environmental disasters in Brazil and reported costs (Costa et al., 2025). Based on these estimates, the study aims to (ii) project the costs of inaction in combating climate change at the national level under different counterfactual climate scenarios. Publisher: Centro Internacional Celso Furtado de Políticas para o Desenvolvimento Type: Relatório Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/11422/29249 2026-03-01T00:00:00Z