Previsão de público com modelo de regressão linear para jogos do Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas

Abstract

In Brazil, the attendance of football games is usually estimated using advance ticket purchase information and the previous experience of the organizers. This paper presents a method for estimating the expected attendance to matches of Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas, which employs Linear Regression. Variables were suggested in an attempt to explain what makes fans attend a match, which encompass factors such as economic aspects and sports results. We used financial newsletters from games of Botafogo at Rio de Janeiro during the 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 Brazilian Championship seasons. A reliable estimate of the public would facilitate, among other things, the sizing of the operating facilities to serve games (such as the number of gates to be opened). The proposed method may assist the decision maker to understand what bring fans to the stadium.