Geração elétrica e mudanças climáticas: avaliação econômico-financeira de usinas hidrelétricas a fio d’água no Rio Tapajós

Abstract

Due to Global Climate Change, it is expected that the electricity sector will suffer impacts because of several factors. When it comes to hydroelectric generation, changes in the hydrological cycle can be especially worrisome, both due to extreme events and changes in the average flow of watercourses. In this sense, new megahydropower projects in the Amazon basin, one of the expansion frontiers of the electric sector in Brazil, may be impacted through a smaller generation than the one initially projected. Additionally, this type of enterprise is subject to other uncertainties related to financial, socio-environmental and technical issues, such as the high risk of construction cost overrun. Thus, the present study seeks to analyze the vulnerability of the São Luiz do Tapajós and Jatobá hydroelectric plants, planned for the Amazon basin, in the face of possible effects of climate change. For this, scenarios of flow reduction are elaborated and, from these, scenarios of power generation. Then, results for three financial indicators in these scenarios are analyzed, carrying out sensitivity analyzes for the cost of construction of the project, energy sale price, and financing interest rate. According to the results, São Luiz do Tapajós presents a lower vulnerability. However, this power plant face greater uncertainty due to the conflicts already observed and its bigger scale. Meanwhile, Jatobá is vulnerable even in more optimistic scenarios.