Fragilidade financeira externa é os limites da política cambial no real

Abstract

This article assesses the impacts of Brazil's exchan e- based stabilization plan (Plano Real) on Sexternal financial fragility and discuss exchange policy to Overcome the Br vulnerability. In order to the country's es alternative azil's external do so, we have developed an index for this external financial fragility, which is applied to a time series of foreign sector variables from 1992 to 1997. The evidences show that Brazilian external financial fragility has grown during the first three years and half after the Real Plan, particularly in 1996 and 1997. Using this evidence, the paper questions the effectiveness the of government's adjustment strategy for the industrial sector, based on four pillars: price stabilization, capital trade and liberalization and exchange appreciation. we Finally, conclude that the scope for changes in currently exchange policy is too small: the government is prisoner of a self-inflicted “exchange trap”.