Ancoragem cambial em ambiente de elevada mobilidade internacional do capital : alcance, limites e soluções

Abstract

During the last two decades several developing countries have experienced stabilization programs based on nominal exchange rate anchor. External fragility, reflected in rising external debts and current account deficits, has become a common feature of these countries. On the other hand, developed countries, which are the creditors of these debts, have been experiencing a liberalization process and rising levels of capital mobility. This new financial enviroment has acted as an externality that can aggravate this situation and, hence, implies a permanent concern. The article discusses two alternative strategies of macroeconomic adjustment for economies emerging from exchange rate anchor plans: i) adapting (submiting) short run policy, maintaining the fixed exchange rate regime; ii) adjusting (flexibilizing) the exchange rate regime itself. The difficulties involved in the first way indicate the second one as the most efficient and less risky strategy.