Criação de emprego e renda pelo Programa Nacional Brasileiro de Biodiesel: uma análise insumo-produto

Abstract

This article analyzes the Brazilian National Biodiesel Program and presents a methodology to estimate the direct and indirect effects of employment and wage generation using the Input-Output Model developed by Leontief. In spite of the important environmental disequilibria it may cause in the agricultural frontier, this program is presented by the Brazilian Government as providing important social benefits, because of the supposition that it will have very positive impacts in terms of jobs and wage creation. In order to estimate these effects, an input-output analysis was carried out, assuming that soybean cultivation will be the main supply of biodiesel. The analysis shows that even assuming the most optimistic hypothesis, the results presented by the official Government Plan exceed considerably the estimates obtained using the model. The main recommendation is that estimates for employment and income creation need to be redone, in order to present more realistic expectations for the job and income generation from the expansion of the biodiesel.

Ese trabajo hace un análisis crítico del Programa Nacional Brasileño de Producción Biodiesel, y presenta una metodología para estimar los efectos directos e indirectos de generación de empleo y masa salarial a partir del Modelo de Insumo-Producto de Leontief. Cuatro simulaciones diferentes han sido hechas, pero mismo en el caso más optimista, los resultados presentados por el Gobierno superan considerablemente las estimativas obtenidas con los datos de Cuentas Nacionales Brasileñas. La principal recomendación es que tales estimativas precisan ser rehechas, de modo a se trabajar con expectativas más realistas para la generación de empleo y ingreso a partir de la expansión del biodiesel.