Análise do risco de navegação ao longo de um canal de entrada a partir de simulações probabilísticas

Abstract

Navigation simulator is a device, computer program or system that reproduces on land, under certain predefined conditions, some activities performed on board. Its use allows the simulation of scenarios involving characteristics of the channel, current, wind and the maneuver of the ship. With this, it is possible to estimate real situations capable of generating impacts on the environment, maritime safety and economy. Some theories are described in the literature for the application of simulators to assess safety in navigation channels. However, these works do not address the use of wind and current data applied to simulators in the fast-time mode, which, by running the simulations more quickly, allow the analysis of the channel as a whole, for each combination of wind and current. The present work aimed to develop a probabilistic method for analyzing navigation safety along a channel using a fast-time simulator combining wind and current data. For that, simulations were carried out in fast-time mode considering wind and current data, having as scenario the access channel to the Gua´ıba Island terminal, as it already has data from the hydrodynamic model. The obtained data were classified according to intensity and combined in scenarios, which were applied in the simulator. For the probabilistic analysis, the theories developed by Briggs et al (2003) and Gucma et al (2018) were considered. In total, 399 simulations were carried out in CASNAV simulator. It was identified that the entrance channel in terms of horizontal dimensions presents an adequate degree of safety for navigation, however, comparatively the sections of channel 96, 101 and 128 have presented relevant risks, especially in combinations of environmental data of severe and moderate categories.