Planejamento da expansão da geração considerando aspectos da programação diária da operação com fontes renováveis intermitentes

Abstract

Concerns about climate change and energy security have led countries to invest in research and development of alternative renewable sources, such as wind and solar photovoltaic generation. As a result, an expressive technological development has been achieved in the last three decades. Worldwide researchers have been emphasizing the importance of developing new methodologies and computational tools for generation expansion planning in which the system operation, considering its renewable sources generation, is properly analyzed with acceptable computational effort. This research proposes a soft-linking methodology for a ten-year generation expansion planning, applied to the Brazilian power system based on the Ten-Year Expansion Plan of 2026. This methodology consists on linking through an iterative process a long-term generation expansion planning model, witch has been applied to official studies of the Brazilian power system, long-term hydrothermal operation models and an hourly day-ahead hydrothermal operation model, all in use today for official studies of the Brazilian power system. The results showed that with the proposed methodology, it was possible to define a generation expansion plan capable of dealing with the uncertainty and intermittency of new renewable sources, thus meeting energy demand economically and safely.