Padrões de consumo de energia em países em desenvolvimento: uma análise de decomposição estrutural para o Brasil

Abstract

Many studies have explored the links between household income growth and energy consumption. the analysis of socioeconomic development impacts on household consumption behavior and its effects on the energy sector has not yet been explored in significant depth for developing countries. This thesis thus proposes an input-output structural decomposition analysis methodology for identifying the main determining factors for variations in energy consumption in developing countries, according to income class, energy source, and household consumption basket composition. To evaluate its applicability, the methodology was used to analyze the repercussions of recent income growth in Brazil from 2002 to 2008. The results of the analysis showed that the distribution of energy consumption by income class accompanied the reduction of income inequality. In addition, the socioeconomic development process caused significant changes in the pattern of household energy consumption, such as increased electrification and access to more modern sources for cooking, such as LPG, and public transport services for low-income families. Analysis also highlighted how important is energy planning in developing countries considers the analysis of household consumption patterns by income class, to develop models with technological details and macroeconomic feedback using their own datasets, to build hybrid input-product matrices to describe consumption baskets, represent intersectoral relations and calculate households’ behavior elasticities.