Um sistema de apoio à decisão multicritério para o planejamento da expansão da geração de longo prazo considerando emissões de gases de efeito estufa

Abstract

There is a growing concern about global warming - or climate change, and the impacts of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels in climate systems. As the benefits of GHG emissions mitigation actions are closely related to long-term strategies, like expansion planning, it is necessary that the methodologies and models for the Long-Term Generation Expansion Planning (LTGEP) become enablers of actions to mitigate climate change. This work presents a general methodology for the LTGEP that explicitly represents GHG emissions in decision making. This methodology is based on multi-criteria decision methods, also employing data envelopment analysis and statistical clustering techniques. Besides being general, the approach is flexible, can be applied to any type of electrical system or circumstance in the country, and allows that the formulation of expansion plan alternatives and the evaluation of their performance can be accomplished through the integrated use of specialized expansion and operation planning models. The proposed approach was applied to a real configuration of the large scale Brazilian interconnected power system. The results pointed to its ability to support the long-term generation expansion planning considering greenhouse gas emissions and its relevance in terms of energy policy.