Procedimento para avaliação da resiliência do sistema de transporte público frente a mudanças econômicas

Abstract

Resilience is the ability of a system to adapt, persist and transform through threats, which can be external or internal to the system. These threats, if they occur, can affect the public transport system. The literature presents threats mainly related to natural disasters and the consequences of climate change, such as earthquakes and rising sea levels, respectively. From the survey of existing threats that can affect urban mobility, a gap was identified with regard to the analysis of the level of resilience and vulnerability in the face of threats of an economic order that can affect more severely developing countries like Brazil and characterized by inequality. Thus, the motivation of this work is to understand which areas would be the most vulnerable and most resilient, should the subsidized tariff integration program cease to exist. Thus, this thesis presents a procedure to measure the level of vulnerability and resilience in access to jobs through a threat of the absence of tariff integration. The city chosen for application was Rio de Janeiro, using data from 160 neighborhoods. From the application of the procedure with the use of fuzzy logic, the analysis was made through the average level of resilience and vulnerability, separating the 11 macrozones in the city. It was found that neighborhoods concentrated in central areas and with high-capacity transport available (train or subway) are the most resilient and least vulnerable. The contribution of the procedure can be verified by the fact that it analyzes the level of vulnerability and resilience of public transport based on the inclusion of a threat that could cause a rupture that impacts changes in routines in access to jobs available in a region.