Modelo para aplicação de análise de risco Fuzzy em projetos complexos

Abstract

Project risk analysis applied in the majority of companies uses the PMBOK Methodology - Project Management Body of Knowledge. This methodology presupposes the realization of risk analysis process comprising in 6 phases. Fuzzy logic brings us the possibility of translating in a more faithful way the human reasoning, considering all subjectivity, uncertainty, ambiguity, contradictions. Fuzzy Logic reward us with important perceptions about the applicability in Project Risk Analysis. The present work proposes a more assertive risk analysis model using fuzzy tools. The model is an advance in traditional way considering how it is performed in most companies, since it considers a sort of important variables despised in traditional model. This model is limited by the project schedule variable not considering other important ones such as quality e cost. This model was applied in big construction, assembly and commissioning until the operational phase of a FPSO Unit and it was not found in literature similar models with this particularities applied in the offshore industry. An automated system was developed to help risk analyst and project team to execute the proposed model, which will be explained in this work. The results have been proved to be more accurate than those in traditional model.