Perspectivas para expansão do uso de minirrefinarias modulares de petróleo no Brasil

Abstract

This study assesses the implementation of modular petroleum mini-refineries, identifying the reasons behind the opportunities associated with these facilities in countries whose liquid fuel demand is expected to increase in the short term, but faces huge uncertainties for the long-term. This thesis focuses on Brazil. A simplified model was developed and applied to compare conventional and modular mini-refineries under different scenarios and according to already available technologies. Findings showed a larger margin of the conventional plant when the fuel demand is sufficiently high; however, the modular units are more resilient to keep their profitably when the fuel demand falls. Actually, a pool of modular plants has its absolute margin reduced when the operation is reduced, but it remarkably remains positive even for quite low product demands. In addition, modular units operating in parallel with larger traditional units may take advantage of this flexibility without compromising much of the scale gains. The introduction of modular fast-building mini-refineries in Brazil can be an interesting solution to meet the country's short-term fuel demand increase, while also dealing with long-term uncertainties, with faster and easier decommissioning.