Avaliação espacial e temporal da modelagem atmosférica : uma contribuição para a estimativa do potencial eólico na Região Nordeste do Brasil

Abstract

Atmospheric models are resources that estimate wind speed and direction. Simulations precision and accuracy vary, among other factors, with local and temporal conditions. In this study, a sensitivity analysis of the WRF model to the adjustment of its physical parameters is carried out. Four distinct configurations are proposed, as well as a comparison of performances in horizontal resolutions of 3 and 9 km, over the Northeast Region, to stimulate wind sector growth in Brazil. The assessments are made in the first two weeks of March and September 2018. Results are compared to observed data collected at 10 m high, at 18 points, to measurements at 50, 52, 94, and 98 m, from a single site, and also to GFS global model analyses, which served as input to WRF simulations. It turns out that YSU Planetary Boundary Layer and Revised MM5 Surface Layer set, with topo_wind option activated, has the Northeast best representation, as also the scenario based on GFS parameterizations. The east coast is the area with the best performances, and this was expanded inland in September month. Thus, WRF potential over the Brazilian Northeast is confirmed, being an important instrument for wind data users.