Associação da demanda por serviços de saúde e medicamentos com estrutura demográfica, renda e fragilidade dos idosos

Abstract

Demand projections are useful to plan medicines’ and health services’ supply and to support public policies’ formulation. Growth in demand for medicines and private health services associated with demographic changes in Brazil was estimated with data from Brazil’s Household Budget Survey (POF) and the country’s statistical office’s Population Projection. For medicines, demand is expected to grow 50.7% in the period between 2020 and 2060 and, for services, 43.3%. This means annual increases of 0.8% and 0.7% in per capita demand for these products. The income elasticity of demand for medicines and health services was also estimated. For medicines, it ranged between 0.25 and 0.85 depending on the percentiles of the income distribution analyzed. For health services, the estimated elasticity was between 0.53 and 0.89. A Frailty Index (FI), based on Brazil’s National Health Survey (PNS), was estimated for people aged 60 years old and over. Using statistical matching methods, two FI estimates were imputed on POF’s database, defining a range of possible values for the index in this survey. The analysis of associations between the demand for medicines and health status, demographic structure and income is what makes possible to evaluate and update projections when more up-to-date information on population profiles becomes available. More than growth rates, these variables’ associations – and the methods used to estimate them – are this thesis’s main contribution to the demand for medicines and private health services’ estimation in Brazil.