Apuração de consenso entre especialistas e hierarquização de critérios para seleção de portfólio de ações com objetivo de retorno a longo prazo, no mercado brasileiro, utilizando a metodologia Fuzzy Delphi

Abstract

This research aims to establish consensus among experts and prioritize criteria for the selection of long-term return stock portfolios in the Brazilian market using the Fuzzy Delphi method. It allows for the anonymous collection of expert opinions and the construction of consensus from these opinions. The research was conducted with a group of 16 experts in equity fund management in the financial market who were invited to participate. In the first stage, a smaller group of qualified and more experienced experts was asked to identify the main criteria or influencing factors for the selection of stock portfolios. Contributions from participants were refined, and the data collection instrument was improved during the second stage. In the third stage, a larger group of qualified experts was asked to assess the importance of the factors identified in stage 1. The research results presented 31 hierarchically ranked influencing factors according to their importance for the selection of long-term return stock portfolios in the Brazilian market, divided into three distinct categories: fundamental analysis evaluation indicators, endogenous and exogenous factors to listed companies, and company-specific factors. The Fuzzy Delphi method proved to be an effective tool for establishing consensus among experts and prioritizing criteria for stock portfolio selection.