Do petro ao eletro : análise da formação de políticas para a descarbonização do transporte coletivo público por ônibus na América Latina

Abstract

This dissertation examines the formation of public policies for the decarbonization of urban public bus transport in Latin America, with a focus on the adoption of battery-electric buses. This technology, driven by advances in battery performance, greater supply (especially following the rise of the Chinese industry in the 2010s), and an enhanced capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, challenges the sociotechnical matrix centered on internal combustion vehicles and fossil fuels that sustained urban expansion throughout the twentieth century. The central hypothesis is that decision-making in the formulation of policies for electric buses relies on multi-level governance, expressed in new institutional arrangements for financing, management, and regulation, yet marked by disputes and tensions over transforming a dominant structure. The analysis is organized into two axes: (i) how the issue of electric buses is framed as a public policy agenda; and (ii) how this agenda is implemented in two different contexts – São Paulo and Bogotá – within their respective national conjunctures, based on documentary research, bibliographic review, and content analysis. The results indicate that such policies are strongly driven by international cooperation missions between countries of the Global North and the Global South, structured in hybrid models in which formal leadership remains with the State, while the technical, methodological, and strategic formulation of “how to make the transition” is often carried out by transnational actors. In addition, a pattern of decentralized implementation is observed, transferring crucial responsibilities to local governments, particularly regarding the infrastructures that enable electric buses – charging systems, energy supply, and new operational models – thus revealing institutional gaps and disputes over the distribution of risks, costs, and maintenance. Finally, the dissertation argues that although these missions accelerate the energy transition, they also reflect an ambivalence: they act as policy entrepreneurs – providing an initial push capable of activating the policy, driving change, and capturing a window of opportunity – while also reproducing path-dependent dynamics that tend to reinforce institutional asymmetries and vulnerabilities, especially due to recurrent reliance on external resources for technical assistance and labor.