Análise exploratória dos dados públicos para avaliação do impacto da pandemia de COVID-19 no sistema de transporte público por ônibus na cidade do Rio de Janeiro

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in travel behavior, with an increase in the use of individual transportation and a reduction in public transportation. In this context, the bus public transportation system has faced significant challenges, experiencing a substantial decrease in demand. This study aims to assess the impact of the pandemic on bus public transportation in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Additionally, it seeks to examine the use of individual transportation, the adoption of remote work, and investigate how these elements correlate with the decline in the use of bus public transportation. In the analysis, based on public data, time series modeling and exploratory analysis techniques were applied. The selected models estimated a 29,47% reduction in the number of passengers transported and a contraction of 25,75% in the quantity of trips between March 2020 and December 2022. On the other hand, continuous increase in the fleet of individual vehicles has been observed in recent years, while vehicle flow showed an 8,4% decrease in monthly average after the pandemic compared to the previous period. The analysis of remote work indicates a gradual reduction over the months of the pandemic period, suggesting a possible return to in-person activities. The socio-economic profile of people who adopted remote work shows a greater inclination towards spending on individual transportation. The continued adoption of remote work may be a factor contributing to maintaining slightly lower vehicular traffic levels than those observed pre-pandemic. These results highlight some alterations in mobility patterns resulting from the health crisis.