Modelagem da dinâmica de sistemas aplicada à recomposição da vegetação nativa: uma análise da efetividade das políticas públicas no estado do Pará

Abstract

This dissertation investigated the institutional, socioeconomic, and territorial factors that affect the effectiveness of public policies for native vegetation restoration in the state of Pará, considering Brazil's environmental commitments. The research combined policy analysis, empirical data collection, and qualitative modeling through System Dynamics. The results show that, although Pará stands out among the states with the largest restored areas, the scale of restoration efforts remains extremely limited in comparison to the environmental debt. From 2018 to 2023, the state recorded over 13.7 million hectares of deforested land, while only 7.9 thousand hectares have been restored. The integrated analysis of deforestation, degradation, and restoration data revealed a structural imbalance between vegetation loss and restoration efforts. Through the Causal Loop Diagram, it was possible to identify key feedback cycles that regulate this dynamic, highlighting constraints such as land tenure insecurity, limited municipal capacity, high costs, and land-use conflicts. In contrast, successful experiences in other states demonstrate the importance of strong local policies, financial incentives, and institutional coordination. It is concluded that native vegetation restoration in Pará requires more integrated and territorialized strategies, supported by systemic analyses that can inform more effective public policy design in line with national environmental restoration goals.