Liberalização financeira, hierarquia de moedas e espaço de política econômica em países de moedas periféricas

Abstract

The present PhD thesis aims to understand external vulnerability and economic policy space under the context of financial liberalization in countries with peripheral currencies. In the first chapter, the historical context and the theoretical aspects of financial liberalization are presented. In the second chapter, the theoretical reasons for the reduction of economic policy space are deepened in which they can be evidenced by financial subordination to capital flows and by the degree of the asymmetric insertion in the International Financial System. This degree would depend directly on the productive complexity of each country. Finally, in the third chapter, we use the stock and flow consistent (SFC) approach to represent a small economy open to capital flows inserted into a flexible exchange rate regime and monetary policy conducted by Taylor’s rule. The Currency Hierarchy appears in the financial asymmetry within the accounting structure. The stability of the model is obtained by utilizing wave movements that are related to exchange rate dynamics. Shock in external variables such as the international interest rate and government spending are submitted to understand the dynamics of this economy and its financial balance sheets. The results show that a floating exchange rate regime and Taylor’s rule cannot promote the necessary stability of a small open economy, especially when it has a low degree of adjustment of its flows and stocks. It is shown that this economy is also subject to the structuralist dominance of the balance of payments and has a tendency of appreciation of the exchange rate in the long term in line with the New Developmentalism approach. Therefore, such results suggest the implementation of alternative measures to broaden the economic policy space in countries with peripheral currencies.