Transição energética de baixo carbono em países dependentes do carvão: uma análise comparativa entre Alemanha, China e Índia

Abstract

The low-carbon energy transition represents one of the main contemporary challenges, as it requires changes that go beyond technological transformations, encompassing economic, social, and political dimensions. In this context, the present research aims to investigate the public policies and the set of instruments shaping the energy transition policies of Germany, China, and India—countries that historically share a significant dependence on coal in their energy matrices. The comparative analysis seeks to understand how different economic, social, and technological contexts influence the energy transition trajectories of these countries. The main contribution of this thesis lies in the development of an analytical framework that interprets different low-carbon energy transition processes, considering their political, institutional, and socioeconomic dimensions. By integrating the TIS (Technological Innovation System) and Policy Mix approaches, this framework provides a lens to evaluate how public policies, and their instruments can be designed to enhance technological innovation functions and promote the alignment of multiple interests within complex systems. The findings indicate that energy transition depends not only on technological advances but also on institutional and social rearrangements capable of fostering sustainability, energy security, and accessibility. The experiences of Germany, China, and India offer valuable lessons on the factors that enhance or constrain the effectiveness of public policies. It is highlighted that an effective energy transition requires not only economic incentives but also the strengthening of institutions and the engagement of diverse social actors, especially in emerging economies.