Validação do método de estimativa do tempo de colonização (TC), através do método linear de grau-dia acumulado (GDA)

Abstract

Time of Colonization (TC) estimates can be performed using methods based on the succession of entomological fauna or on insect development, the latter being divided into nonlinear approaches, such as isomorphen and isomegalen diagrams, and linear ones, such as accumulated degree-days (ADD). The validation of these methodologies is crucial within the legal context; however, the literature still lacks sufficient validation studies. Experimental validation is an approach that allows a closer approximation to what is observed at crime scenes, yet it remains underexplored. Thus, the present study aimed to experimentally validate the rectangle method for TC estimation. In the present study, the estimated TC varied considerably in relation to the actual postmortem interval (PMI): from 0 to 66.6% (2nd day), 25 to 75% (3rd day), 40 to 120% (4th day), 33.3 to 100% (5th day), and 14.29 to 85.7% (6th day). Additionally, no significant impacts were observed from using larval mass temperature data in the estimates. Estimates based on uncorrected weather station data proved more accurate than those corrected through linear regression. Estimates based on previous instar data and rearing until adult emergence were more accurate with data from the second and third days of PMI, while estimates based on rearing until pupariation were more accurate from the fourth day onward. Overall, rearing under controlled temperatures yielded slightly more accurate estimates than rearing under variable temperatures. Thus, this study contributes relevant data on the application of the rectangle method, highlighting both its accuracy and limitations.