Modelagem estocástica de vazões diárias

Abstract

This work describes briefly a set of stochastic models mentioned in the literature for the production of synthetic daily flows. A sub-set of four models was chosen for a more detailed analysis when some modifications were made in relation to the original formulations. These four models were used to generate synthetic series in two stream gauges: at São José da Barra in the Grande River/MG and União da Vitória in the Iguaçu River/PR. A methodology was developed to classify the models. It was adopted a criterion that atribute a greater value to the models more capable of producing synthetic series, which show estatistics properties analogues to those observed in the historical serie. These properties were selected foreseeing the eventual use of the models in flood control studies.