Sobrecustos e atrasos de megaprojetos de energia: quando maior é pior

Abstract

Energy system success has historically been associated with the perception that megaprojects, projects whose investment exceeds one billion dollars, produce economies of scale. Planners use to believe that systems should be composed of a few, but large, units of supply and distribution. In view of this scenario, the objective of this work was to carry out an evaluation of the performance of cost and delivery time construction indicators of energy megaprojects. In developing this analysis, it sought to contribute to the improvement of the planning and implementation processes of new energy projects. To carry out the evaluation, an international database was used with all types of electric power generation plants. It were obtained the results of cost overruns and delays probability distribution curves for all the sources, as well as an evaluation of geographical and size influence of the project on the variables cost and delay. A qualitative analysis was made of the cost overruns and delays in megaprojects and a bibliographical review about the main issues linked to the decision making and foundations of megaproject management. Finally, it were used the probability distribution functions to evaluate the performance of mega hydroelectric plants recently built in the country and it were indicated the risk level of cost overruns and delay that the projects of the sector are subject.