Nível de atividade em veículos leves de passageiros no Brasil à luz do crescimento demográfico

Abstract

The level of activity of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) for passengers in the transport sector is an important element used to determine energy and transportation demands in planning studies. The techniques used for these projections are traditionally based on macroeconomic correlations. However, some structural changes have been taking place and there is evidence, especially in developed countries, of the decoupling of these variables. This condition is evidenced when the specific case of light duty vehicles is analyzed. The causes for this phenomenon have been attributed to several factors. These ones are able to alter the passenger behavior and can also be observed in countries with different socioeconomic conditions. This study aims to apply these elements over the evolution scenario of light duty vehicles in emerging countries. Although there are great perspectives for the evolution of mobility in these nations, the study seeks to evaluate the impact of those different elements on moderating this growth. In this manner, it is shown a case study considering the Brazilian scenario. A modelling technique which is capable of incorporating these effects, especially those of demographic magnitude, is proposed to measure the evolution of this vehicle category. The scenarios proposed by this study varied according to the assumptions adopted. The level of activity in the lower scenario indicated results 15.1% below than those from the maximum scenario in 2050, and 11.6% below in 2030.