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http://hdl.handle.net/11422/2791| Type: | Dissertação |
| Title: | Probabilidades de duração de seca empregando a Teoria de Runs |
| Author(s)/Inventor(s): | Eid, Nabil Joseph |
| Advisor: | Salazar, Pedro Luis Antônio Guerrero |
| Abstract: | Foi efetuada a análise estrutural univariada e bivariada, considerando-se intervalos mensais e anuais, de quatro séries de vazões e duas de precipitações. A bivariada considerou, ainda, dois conjuntos distintos: o das vazões e o das precipitações. Foi ajustada, a cada componente independente das séries investigadas, uma distribuição log-normal de três parâmetros, no caso mensal, e uma distribuição normal, no caso anual. Foram determinadas as distribuições de probabilidades de ocorrência dos maiores comprimentos de runs em séries finitas de comprimento N = 300, 600 e 1200 (caso mensal) e N = 25, 50 e 100 (caso anual), e as distribuições de probabilidades de ocorrência dos comprimentos de runs em séries infinitas, para níveis de corte q, correspondentes à demanda, iguais a .3, .4 e .5, considerando-se os casos univariado e bivariado. Tais distribuições foram avaliadas através do método experimental de Monte Carlo de geração de séries univariada e bivariada. Foram efetuadas comparações entre os métodos experimental e exato e entre os métodos experimental e aproximado, tendo também sido efetuada uma análise da representatividade da situação crítica histórica. |
| Abstract: | The univariate and bivariate structural analysis was made considering monthly an yearly time intervals of four runoffs series and two rainfalls series. A log normal three distribution was adjusted to each independent component of hydrologic series available where the time interval was considered to be a month. In case of yearly time intervals a normal distribution was adjusted. Probability distributions of longest negative runlength in given series of length N = 300, 600 and 1200 (monthly case) and N = 25, 50 and 100 (yearly case) and probability distributions of the run-lengths in infinite series for truncation levels q (q = .3, .4 and .5) that correspond to the demand were determined, considering the univariate and the bivariate case. The distributions were evaluated by the experimental method of Monte Carlo with univariate and bivariate series generation. Comparisons between experimental and exact methods and between experimental and aproximate methods were made as well as an analysis of the representativity of the critical historical situation. |
| Keywords: | Probabilidade aplicada Seca |
| Subject CNPq: | CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL::ENGENHARIA HIDRAULICA |
| Program: | Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil |
| Production unit: | Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia |
| Publisher: | Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro |
| Issue Date: | Sep-1976 |
| Publisher country: | Brasil |
| Language: | por |
| Right access: | Acesso Aberto |
| Appears in Collections: | Engenharia Civil |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 144351.pdf | 2.85 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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