Etanol versus bioeletricidade: aplicação dos conceitos de fronteira eficiente de Markowitz para o aproveitamento do bagaço residual do setor sucroenergético

Abstract

This work analyzes the competition for bagasse in the lignocellulosic ethanol and electricity productions using the modern portfolio theory developed by Markowitz, as the sector can further diversify its production, reducing risks and increasing returns. After literature review, about sugar-energy sector and these two biofuels production technologies, the concepts of the Markowitz Efficient Portfolio Theory were presented. Then, a model was developed to this sector, based on this theory. Finally, the competitiveness of bagasse, under the risk / return perspective, was analyzed in five different scenarios, applying technological packages to the advanced ethanol production and bioelectricity, as well as introducing subsidies. It was possible to conclude that, in the current stage of lignocellulosic ethanol production, the lowest risk portfolio has a large allocation of bagasse to bioelectricity sold in the regulated market. When efficient technology package is introduced, the bagasse allocation in the lowest risk portfolio changes to second generation ethanol. The model proved effective, constituting an important auxiliary tool in assisting managers to distribute assets of a portfolio in a more efficient way.