Implementation of land use in an energy system model to study the long-term impacts of bioenergy in Brazil and its sensitivity to the choice of agricultural greenhouse gas emission factors

Abstract

Brazil has been identified as an important global source of low-carbon energy supply, especially through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). However, concerns of significant trade-offs between climate change mitigation and other sustainable development goals include increased deforestation, and losses of biodiversity and water quality. Moreover, higher emissions of non-CO2 gases, especially methane and nitrous oxide, may reduce the emissions mitigation potential of bioenergy production, since emission of these gases is mostly associated with agriculture and land use. Bioenergy production provides the link between land use and agriculture on the one hand and energy systems on the other. To date, few studies have assessed in an integrated manner the interlinkages in Brazil between these sectors, as well as the impacts on mitigation potential of bioenergy from nonCO2 gas emissions resulting from its production. This thesis presents a modelling framework to explore these interlinkages by hard-linking agriculture, land use and energy systems in a single modelling platform. It then explores scenarios for Brazil’s contribution towards global climate change mitigation efforts, highlighting the cross-sectoral impacts of meeting Paris Agreement goals. In addition, it assesses the role of non-CO2 gases in Brazil’s emissions profiles, including a novel analysis of how the choice of Tier 1 versus Tier 2 agricultural N2O emission factors impacts modelled energy system solutions.