Estimativa do período de retorno de enchentes em postos fluviométricos, com curto período de observação

Abstract

Analysis of flood using partial duration series in station with short term records improved with flood records in nearby station with longer record is the subject of this study. The approach used is based on the recent results on this problem, where the bivariate exponential probability distribution was used for the distribution of exceedences and the bivariate binomial probability distribution for the number of exceedences. The case when the exceedences above a base level have different distributions such as the normal, log-normal, exponential, gama e Gumbel probability distributions was studied. Three study cases selected different areas of Brazil were analysed using a digital computer, and the results using the above model, were compared with three univariate approachs that use the Gumbel, Log-Gumbel and Log-Pearson III probability distributions, respectively.