Determinação de vazões extremas a partir de séries parciais ou máximos anuais

Abstract

The main purpose of this work is to evaluate the possibilities of the use of the Partial Duration Series (peaks over a treshold methods, POT) to estimate flood peaks with very high return periods. Initially, the mean daily flow records of 29 gauging stations of the Rio Doce basin are used as a tool to verify the major assumptions of the POT methods. After that, the elementary properties of the Partial Series are compared to those of the correspondent Annual Maximum Series. In order to compare the POT estimates of the T-year return period flood with the Annual Maximum estimates, synthetic hydroraphs, obtained by stochastic models, are used. That synthetic series are used as a basis to evaluate the eficiency of the goodness of fit index to selecting a probability distribution that best estimate floods with high return periods.