Estudo do impacto da penetração eólica no subsistema sul do Brasil

Abstract

Wind power developed in the last two decades and became a competitive energy source. The share of wind power had increased substantially in the Brazilian power system and in many systems around the world. However, wind generation is variable, uncertain, low-cost and non dispatched; hence these characteristics cause impacts in power systems. In this context, this dissertation aims to understand and analyze some of the wind power impacts in the Brazilian power system. For this, an hourly operation of the South Brazilian power system was simulated in the Plexos power model. First, this study modeled a validation case based on 2015 data. After that, two case studies were simulated, one for 2030 and another one for 2050. For each case, two scenarios were compared, a baseline and a wind policy scenario. To create these scenarios, the results of the MESSAGE-Brazil energy model was used as an input in Plexos. Results show that system flexibility becomes more important, increase in the dependence on energy exchange, emissions reductions and a decrease in generation costs. Besides, the utilization of thermal power plants as baseload generation can improve energy security and reduce the total cost of the system. Also, it is important to highlight that, in all scenarios simulated, there were generation deficits, which seems to indicate that the dispatch model used does not validate the results of the MESSAGE-Brazil expansion model.