Criação de emprego e renda pelo Programa Nacional Brasileiro de Biodiesel: uma análise insumo-produto

Abstract

This article analyzes the Brazilian National Biodiesel Program and presents a methodology to estimate the direct and indirect effects of employment and wage generation using the Input-Output Model developed by Leontief. In spite of the important environmental disequilibria it may cause in the agricultural frontier, this program is presented by the Brazilian Government as providing important social benefits, because of the supposition that it will have very positive impacts in terms of jobs and wage creation. In order to estimate these effects, an input-output analysis was carried out, assuming that soybean cultivation will be the main supply of biodiesel. The analysis shows that even assuming the most optimistic hypothesis, the results presented by the official Government Plan exceed considerably the estimates obtained using the model. The main recommendation is that estimates for employment and income creation need to be redone, in order to present more realistic expectations for the job and income generation from the expansion of the biodiesel.