Modelos de negócio para micro e minigeração distribuída fotovoltaica no Brasil: características e impactos com a alteração da compensação da energia

Abstract

Brazil has great potential for the development of solar energy, and Distributed Generation (DG) through photovoltaic systems has been an alternative for electricity generation by several consumers. In this study, the objective was to identify the photovoltaic business models practiced in the country, within the scope of Normative Resolution nº 482 of 2012 from the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL), and to verify the impacts of changes to the net-metering on the investment attractiveness. The discounted cash flow methodology was applied to assess the identified business models. The Turnkey model of acquisition of a photovoltaic plant, for installation next to the commercial consumer unit, suffers less impact with the alteration of net-metering than the residential sector, due to its daytime consumption profile that harmonizes with the generation time of the solar plant. However, both sectors remain attractive. For remote net-metering, energy credits are not sufficient to recover the investment. Minimum concurrency is required to maintain the project's viability within the plant's lifetime. The Lease model would be possible for large commercial consumers, provided that the design is installed next to the consumer unit. The Community Solar, an alternative model for consumers with no space available for installing a photovoltaic system, is also impacted by changes in the value of the injected energy. Any scenario of changes to the net-metering regulation would make the enterprise unfeasible.