Adensamento produtivo no âmbito do Complexo Econômico Industrial da Saúde: uma análise insumo-produto do governo Lula 3

Abstract

The growing external dependence on strategic inputs and the process of deindustrialization have weakened Brazil’s productive base, especially in the healthcare sector. This study investigates how strengthening domestic production within the Health Economic-Industrial Complex (HEIC) can contribute to revitalizing the Brazilian economy and reducing vulnerabilities in meeting the demands of the Unified Health System (SUS). The research aims to explore the potential economic impacts of the public policies of Lula’s third administration, specifically those aimed at increasing the productive density of the HEIC in terms of job creation and production across different sectors. The study is based on the hypothesis that implementing policies to stimulate the production of strategic inputs for the SUS could be part of a solution to Brazil’s industrial hollowing-out, given that expanding local healthcare production has the potential to drive broader economic growth. The study adopts an empirical approach based on the input-output matrix (IOM), analyzing two demand shock scenarios: a baseline scenario, which maintains the current level of imports, and an alternative scenario that incorporates both the nationalization targets of Mission 2 of the New Industry Brazil (NIB) and the investment variations projected in the National Strategy for HEIC Development and the PAC Saúde. The results highlight a significant increase in investments in the HEIC, rising by 470% between 2022 and 2024, with PAC Saúde accounting for 70% of this total. In the policy scenario, there was a substantial impact on production in sectors linked to the pharmaceutical supply chain, such as "manufacturing of organic and inorganic chemicals, resins, and elastomers," which saw a 1,370% increase, as well as a remarkable rise in employment in architecture, engineering, and R&D services, which grew 160 times more than in the baseline scenario. The findings demonstrate that increasing the productive density of the HEIC, driven by public policies, has the potential to revitalize key sectors of the Brazilian economy. The substantial rise in investments, particularly through PAC Saúde, and the notable impacts on production and employment in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and R&D underscore the importance of these policies in strengthening national productive capacity and reducing external dependence, especially in the context of public healthcare.