Potencial de mitigação das emissões de CO2 do transporte marítimo internacional : uma análise baseada em cenários para o caso dos navios-tanque de petróleo bruto

Abstract

Despite being a major contributor to greenhouse gases emissions, international shipping was left out of the Paris Agreement (2015), which is United Nations’ new guideline within the fight against climate change. In the absence of a clear mitigation strategy, the sector’s emissions, which currently account for 2,5% of global CO2eq, may undergo an increase of over 200% until 2050, jeopardizing the achievement of the goals set at COP-21. There is, however, a vast potential for mitigation of fossil CO2 emissions in the maritime sector, which cover both incremental changes, such as slow steaming, and structural changes, e.g., transition to low-carbon fuels. In this work, this potential is evaluated for the specific case of crude oil tankers, which constitute, from an economic and energy point of view, one of the most important categories of international maritime transport. For this purpose, we perform a bottom-up modelling of the main crude petroleum trade routes, from which seven fuel consumption and CO2 emissions scenarios are derived. In the reference scenario (C1), emissions increase from 87 MtCO2 per year in 2015 to 95 MtCO2 per year in 2040, with 2,41 GtCO2 accumulated over the period. In the high-mitigation scenario (C7), 43 MtCO2 are emitted annually in 2040. This value is 55% lower than the annual emissions of the baseline scenario in the same year. The corresponding reduction in cumulative emissions is 39%.