Metodologia para cálculo de índice de risco na área de movimento de aeronaves em aeroportos utilizando lógica fuzzy

Abstract

The literature indicates difficulties establishing concrete statistical relationships for a system of operational accident prevention in the airports based on facts/events. Risk assessment methodologies deal with the subject in a non-linear fashion, using conventional statistical methods, without considering the perception of the experts on the events that have not occurred yet, but may occur. Fuzzy logic is an efficient mathematical method that treats the human perception of factors that have occurred and those that may systematically occur in a systematic way. This study addresses the risks related to events involving aircraft movement area of the airport, analyzing accidents involving people, goods, aircrafts, animals, equipment and vehicles. It also presents the addition of the use of fuzzy logic to the methodology of risk assessment in the high traffic areas of the airport (apron and runways), seeking to improve the existing methodology regarding the linearity of the system and the consideration of events that haven´t occurred yet at the airport, according to the perception of the experts. The methodology was applied to two airports in two major Brazilian cities showing relevant risk indicators related to the planning of the airport risk management system.