Comércio internacional, política econômica e poluição no Brasil

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine this issue based on the Brazilian experience in the first half of the 1990s. During this period, in line with the principles of greater economic openness, the industry was characterized by the dynamism of export-oriented activities and growing competition from imported products. More specifically, this article investigates the influence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission levels, the most important pollutant associated with the problem of global warming, caused by the changes in production structure resulting from these measures. In line with previous work (Young, 1997), the methodology adopted is based on a combination of input-output tables, drawn up by the IBGE, and emission coefficients. In this case, carbon dioxide estimates are used, obtained from annual greenhouse gas emission inventories (recently prepared by COPPE/UFRJ as part of the emission estimates that the Brazilian government has to submit to the parties to the Climate Change Convention). The results indicate that, in the period 1990/94, emissions grew steadily and that the activities of the export complex are much more emission-intensive than the rest of the economy. These results are deeply consistent with previous studies (Young 1997, Veiga et al. 1995) which indicate that structural changes in the Brazilian economy during the period are associated with greater specialization in the export of goods resulting from pollutant-intensive activities. In other words, the Brazilian experience is much closer to the pessimistic view of those who associate the increase in international trade flows with the degradation of natural resources, than to the optimistic view which attributes to trade openness the additional advantage of improving environmental conditions.