Nexo entre poluição atmosférica de impacto local e mudanças climáticas globais em um modelo de avaliação integrada para o Brasil

Abstract

Air pollution is a topic of worldwide importance mainly due to the impacts on human health. The main pollutants responsible for the damages are particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3). This theme is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as climate change. The objective of this thesis is to incorporate an air pollution module, covering PM2.5, NOx and SO2, in a national integrated assessment model, BLUES, in order to verify synergies and trade-offs of the simultaneous analysis of greenhouse gases emissions’ mitigation and local air pollutants emissions' reduction. Results show that the climate mitigation scenarios lead to a reduction in PM2.5 and SO2 emissions, but not necessarily to a reduction in NOx emissions. In order to achieve stringent reduction of this air pollutant, a new configuration of the energy mix was necessary, in which the hard-link integration of the air pollution module into BLUES proved to be fundamental. In these scenarios, the importance of alternatives to diesel was verified, as electrification and ethanol fuel cell. In addition, it was identified the bioenergy use of agricultural residues, and an increase in electricity generation from clean sources and sugarcane bagasse gasification. It highlights the importance of variable renewable resources in the energy transition and in compliance with the SDGs.