Incorporação de indicadores de biodiversidade em um modelo de avaliação integrada: fundamentos e perspectivas

Abstract

The viability of GHG mitigation measures is uncertain, mainly in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals. The expansion of bioenergy crops may present conflicting interests with the biodiversity agenda. The main tool used to answer these questions and able to analyze these trade-offs is the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). However, biodiversity is a topic not very well represented yet in such models. The objective of this work is to perform the ’problem framework’ of biodiversity in IAMs, with emphasis on the Brazilian Model of Energy and Land Use, BLUESCOPPE, in order to answer what the field of IAM should take into account and what indicators can use. For this, this work contextualized the problem; systematized the framework of indicators and approaches; identified and discussed criteria and use of indicators, and pointed ways. The systematization carried out indicates that the assessment of biodiversity in a context of IAMs gains in quality by having ecological process representation and spatially explicit information, but given the circumstances of data, adaptations can be made. It was pointed out that it is possible to develop methodologies based on the NCI, MSA, BII indices, adapted to the BLUES reality, through different degrees of simplification. The modeling exercise should be oriented to the pressure variable land use and associated components. Approaches that relate habitat loss and extinction face a constraint on spatial use, and would require combined use with other tools. The research theoretically bases the problem, offering a basis for next practical steps.