Previsão de tempestades severas e de transbordamentos no rio Quitandinha – Petrópolis/RJ

Abstract

The identification of the atmospheric environment favorable to the formation and development of intense rainfall has been a theme of great relevance by the scientific community in the last decades. This importance is based on the creation of measures which are able to mitigate the consequences related to the rainfall magnitudes, especially those associated with the occurrence of flood events, landslides and, in the most critical scenarios, natural disasters. A strategy for an operational forecasting and nowcasting of intense rainfall, with emphasis on the events of Quitandinha River flooding, located in Petrópolis city, occurred between the years of 2013 and 2016 is presented. The methodology for implementing the strategy involved three stages of analysis. In the first stage, it was proposed the analysis of the Quitandinha River basin characteristics, as well as the identification of precipitation patterns and predominant meteorological systems. The calculation of dynamic and thermodynamic parameters in the synoptic and local scales is presented at the proposal for the second stage. Finally, in the third stage, short-term estimates using weather radars are explored. The results showed the applicability of the operational strategy for the analyzed region and that estimulates the recommendation for the application of the conceived methodology to other regions of Brazil. It is expected that the developed solutions could contribute to and consolidate the use of new tools for operational monitoring and alert systems.