Bridging the energy divide and securing higher collective wellbeing in a climate-constrained world

Abstract

In spite of the impressive gains in available energy over the last two centuries, the associated benefits remain unevenly distributed. Bridging this divide only adds to the already daunting challenge of securing climate stabilization. This thesis examines the potential incompatibility between these two efforts by estimating the additional energy needed to secure higher collective wellbeing across the globe by mid-century based on regional energy elasticities of wellbeing derived from regressions using linear log-log models and by calculating the associated carbon emissions based on emission intensities obtained from different climate action scenarios of the integrated assessment model MESSAGE. A proxy measure for human wellbeing is selected from existing alternative aggregate indicators to GDP, encompassing all three pillars of sustainable development. Results indicate that even with new climate policies and actions, emissions associated with higher wellbeing in all regions where improvements are still needed, which represent 78 percent of the global population, could still reach up to one and a half times estimated 2 degrees Celsius budgets, and even more so for lower temperature increase targets. Given the scale of the overall gaps, effective changes in lifestyle choices in advanced countries, such as those associated with home energy use, private travel, and diet, would be needed to make room for the additional emissions needed to secure higher collective wellbeing in the rest of the world.