Impacto de qualidades de óleo cru e esquemas de refino em um modelo global de análise integrada

Abstract

Integrated assessment models provide long-term oil production scenarios for different climate goals. Nevertheless, these models lack a better representation of the oil sector, with strong technological and characteristics limitations of this energy source. Thus, this study aims to improve the oil sector from the COFFEE model, implementing crude oil typologies, updating its oil supply cost curve and the refinery database, based on the development of a specific branch for the E&P and refining sectors. This new version might be better suited to provide novel insights into the topics of just transition and carbon lock-in. Climate scenarios with different carbon budgets are adopted to evaluate the impact of these modifications on the model's responses. Results show a decrease in the oil resources’ utilization, prioritizing the light oils in all scenarios, and there is a significant increase in international trade. The Middle East region considerably reduces its overall oil production in the new model version, though it remains to represent the largest share of global oil production. Given the greater flexibility of the oil input, schemes, and campaigns in the refining sector implemented in the model, there is a preference for expanding refineries of greater complexity, an increase in the average utilization factor, and a higher yield in medium distillates on the results of this new version.