Impacto econômico sobre as tarifas residenciais associado à expansão da microgeração solar distribuída no Brasil

Abstract

This study investigates an important theme of Brazilian energy policy. The adoption of the net-metering bill for mini and micro solar generators connected to the distribution networks. The current billing strategy adopted in Brazil allows all generation not consumed immediately to be offset in credits on energy bills of self-producing consumers. This mechanism generates distortions in tariffs and a type of cross-subsidy, where consumers who do not migrate to distributed generation, bear full systemic costs (network costs plus the capacity costs of centralized generation, charges and losses). The results presented show that as in other nations, such as Germany and Australia, among others, the cross subsidies of the incentive to distributed solar generation in Brazil will increase the use tariffs of distribution systems, reducing the distributors revenues and tax collection by government in the conventional electricity sector. The current state of solar generation in Brazil is non-inclusive, 95% of the solar generation systems distributed in the country among residential consumers, have an installed capacity of more than 210 kWh, for an average consumption in the country that revolves around 160 kWh. In the Brazilian case, the results obtained in this thesis shows that an increase in tariffs in the year of 2025 in the order of 6,73 % to 8,32 %, as well as in the base scenario - which preserves the current average growth rates of solar photovoltaic technology - a reduction in the net revenue of 14,7 billion in the distributors, and 6,0 billion in taxes.