Aprimoramento do modelo de análise integrada BLUES e estudo de caso para os shared socioeconomic pathways

Abstract

The influence of human activity on climate change is becoming increasingly evident. This makes mitigation actions necessary to compensate for these emissions. Integrated Assessment Models can be used to study the application of climate policies and its impacts. Therefore, scenarios, which are narratives for trajectories of socio-environmental and economic systems, can be a useful mean to describe assumptions on integrated models analyzes. Then, the objective of this work is to improve the representation of the industrial and transportation sectors in a Brazilian integrated assessment model, known as BLUES, and the first steps for the information exchange automation between the BLUES model and a global general equilibrium model, know as TEA. As a case study, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways are implemented and evaluated in the Brazilian integrated model. Hence, it is noticeable how the narratives affect the model’s choices, such as a greater electrification in some scenarios or a preference for renewable technologies in others. The introduction of new technologies was decisive in all scenarios. In general, the renewable sources, advanced biofuels and hybridization options in the transport sector were the decisive highlights of the scenarios. Furthermore, efforts to curb deforestation are key to achieving low levels of emissions, although not sufficient to achieve the 2◦C target relative to the average temperature of the pre-industrial era, in 2100.