Impactos econômicos de eventos extremos no Brasil e o custo das mudanças climáticas

Abstract

This study aims to (i) estimate the economic impacts (such as GDP, tax revenue from goods, material damage, financial losses and various measures of agricultural production) and the human impacts (injuries, illness, displacement, homelessness) of extreme weather events involving drought and heavy rainfall at municipal level, observed between 2000 and 2023. To this end, it employs econometric methods of causal inference and the database presented in the report Survey of environmental disasters in Brazil and reported costs (Costa et al., 2025). Based on these estimates, the study aims to (ii) project the costs of inaction in combating climate change at the national level under different counterfactual climate scenarios.