Exportações, consumo pessoal e estrutura de produção: algumas simulações para o Brasil

Abstract

This text Is related to a research project carried out by the IEI/UFRJ for the SENAI, with the objective of helping this Institute designing its professional training policy and programs. More especifically, the aim of the study presented here is to evaluate the effects on labor demand of alternative export and consumption cenarios for the brazilian economy, using a multisectorial simulation model. The first two sections of this paper are dedicated to metodological aspects, data base definition and constructi on of cenarios. The third section presents a set of results from the simulation runs, which take into account 5 different cenarios for the evolution of export structure and 6 alternative private consumption patterns, related to various combinations of average family income and distribution. The detailed results, the technical aspects and the set set of hypothesis used in the construction of the cenarios are shown in annex.