Metodologia para avaliação das condições de atendimento à demanda máxima instantânea considerando incertezas da geração renovável

Abstract

The purpose of this dissertation is to propose and develop a methodology that allows to evaluate the conditions of service to the maximum demand of electric power systems in a medium-term horizon, up to five years of simulation. To undertake such an evaluation, and to allow the incorporations of the stochastic characteristics of wind and solar generation, not only the maximum demand schedule was simulated, but also the twenty-four hours of the day was applied. This allows identifying the hour of most systemic stress due to the combination of the increase in demand and the reduction of wind and/or solar generation. Further objectives of this dissertation include the identification of the optimal operation for each of these configurations and scenarios. Moreover, the total cost of generation and the cost of the ‘constrained on’ char are estimated, resulting from the generation of thermoelectric plants above the order of merit. The simulations were carried out from the Brazilian National Interconnected System, according to the configuration used by the ONS, Brazilian ISO, in the Energy Operation Plan.