Análise de demanda e de risco econômico do descomissionamento de sistemas de produção offshore no Brasil usando simulação estocástica

Abstract

Besides the natural demand to extinguish obsolete assets, during a period of sharp reduction of the barrel of oil price, there is an intensification of this demand by the oil companies, which increases the uninstallation, removal and disposal of projects. These operations are best described by the term decommissioning. Descommissioning is a term increasingly used by the oil and gas industry in Brazil and has been the object of several studies in a wide range of disciplines, due to the low experience of the Brazilian industry in this operation and the predominance of deep and ultra-deep water production in Brazil. The present work aims to identify the cost components for a decommissioning of a typical Brazilian oil field, defined based on a demand analysis, in order to estimate its cost. In addition, the components of cost will be correlated to the degrees of uncertainty to perform an economical risk analysis, using stochastic simulation, capable to identify the capacity of cost variation and the influence of variables. The results show that in Brazil there is a notable influence of the decommissioning costs of submarine systems and the uncertainty related to them.