Desenvolvimento de um modelo global de equilíbrio geral computável para avaliação de políticas climáticas: o papel da mudança de dieta

Abstract

Several studies have shown the serious impacts of climate change on natural systems and human influence on the climate system. Computable general equilibrium models are commonly used by the scientific community in integrated assessment tools, to identify the functioning of the economy through the simultaneous analysis of interactions between regions, sectors and economic agents. This thesis aims to: i) developing and documentation of a global computable general equilibrium model in the context of climate change; and ii) simulation of the proposed methodology through a scenario analysis, in a case study about the role of the global dietary change arising from behavior versus induced by GHG emissions pricing. Climate policies, via marketbased instruments, must be diligently planned, in order to minimize trade-offs related to agricultural competitiveness and food security in a low-carbon future. Although it results in penalties for animal-based production sectors in Brazil and around the world, changes in food choices are essential for environmental, economic and social sustainability. The society’s refusal to dietary change represents an opportunity cost in terms of mitigating future global GHG emissions.